Author: Julian Tupay
Having sketched out the security challenges facing Germany and the upcoming decisions that have to be made by the new administration in Part I of this analysis, I will now set out to discuss how Germany’s policy stance will develop under the new leadership.
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Author: Julian Tupay
With parliamentary election past and a new coalition of the willing, composed of Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Guido Westerwelle’s Free Democratic Party (FDP), in the starting blocks to replace the little liked marriage of convenience between the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), it is time to take a look at the portents this new leadership casts over the future of German foreign and security policy.
Loe edasipostitas: ICDSKommentaar
Author: Julian Tupay
Obama’s unofficial stop-over in Dresden on his way from Kairo to the D-Day celebrations in France could not have taken place under more ominous signs. His plans to visit the site of the Buchenwald concentration-camp, which his great uncle has helped to free, and to check up on injured US soldiers who are being treated in the US army hospital in Landstuhl have left very little time for substantial meetings with Merkel and other German dignitaries. In fact the chancellery has had to torture any additional agenda point out of Obama’s protocol staff. Though Obama finally agreed to visit the Frauenkirche and the Zwinger in Dresden, Germany remained unsuccessful in coaxing Obama to Berlin. Obama was however amenable to extend his visit to France by an additional night, in order to come to Paris as well as to the D-Day celebration in the Normandy, as French President Sarkozy noticed with some little gloating.
Loe edasipostitas: ICDSKommentaar
Author: Julian Tupay
In the aftermath of Angela Merkel’s annual meeting with her Russian counterpart many a gloomy prophecy as to the far reaching implications of this meeting has been given voice. Whether it be speculation about the return of Germany to pre World-War realpolitik and power aspirations, or the pending end of NATO and European integration due to Germany’s positioning in between the US and Russia, fear and apprehension has found many expressions. In the following I will first establish what was really spoken of and agreed upon during the summit. Secondly, I will briefly analyze the German position in light of the current European security structure.
Loe edasipostitas: ICDSKommentaar
Author: Julian Tupay
With its recent offensive against Georgia Russia has proved George Kennan right, who once noted that at its border Russia has only vassals and enemies. Russia has punished Georgia for gallivanting with the west too openly and, with the same stroke it has also send a message to all other states in the region that the time to ignore Russian interests is over. This offensive has also proven that the window of opportunity the west had, during the period of Russian internal upheaval, to stabilize the Russian periphery and bring it firmly into its sphere of influence has passed. Russia has evaluated western meddling in its “near abroad” as a threat to national security and has thrown its newly found strength against western interests at a well chosen point in time, for there is no one to oppose it in any meaningful way. The US is militarily completely bogged down in the Middle-East and, in addition, it requires Russian assistance to deal with Iran. The EU simply lacks the capabilities and the resolve to mount any sort of effective opposition.
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Author: Julian Tupay
In pursuit of finding the roots of German and Estonian misunderstanding and disenfranchisement concerning the two nation’s respective policy vis-ą-vis Russia, I undertook a trip to Berlin to talk to people involved in, or knowledgeable about German “Ost-Politik”. Admittedly, I myself knew very little about the topic prior to my visit, except the fact that Germany is seen as a coddler of Russia and ignorant to the worries and interests of its eastern European allies, while Germans despise the “Russophobe” rhetoric and behavior of the former Soviet republics, which often hampers its efforts to engage Russia on a European level. Not at all unexpectedly, the picture turned out to be much more complex than this simple and superficial observation.
Loe edasipostitas: ICDSKommentaar
Author: Julian Tupay
Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has released a security strategy paper which outlines the conservatives’ vision for a security reform in Germany. This paper has sparked an immediate backlash from all other parties, including the Social Democratic Party (SPD), who is the junior partner of the CDU in the current administration.
The reservations mainly stem from two points. The first is the repeated and strong claim that the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, must be permitted to be deployed on German soil in certain emergency situations. The second highly controversial point is the call for the creation of a German Security Council, much like the US National Security Council (NSC).
The CDU document paints a broad threat landscape which Germany is currently unfit to deal with. It identifies eight broad threats to German security:
1. Terrorism
2. Energy dependency
3. International Organized Crime
4. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation
5. Regional Conflicts
6. Failed/Failing states
7. Pandemics and international communicable diseases
8. Consequences of climate change
postitas: ICDSKommentaar
Autorid: Riina Kaljurand ja Julian Tupay
Mr Urban Ahlin, a leading social democrat in Sweden, visited the International Centre for Defence Studies in Tallinn on the 1st of April to talk about the role of Sweden in world security. Mr Ahlin is a veteran of Swedish politics and a master of its rhetoric. He has been a member of the Riksdag (the Swedish Parliament) since 1994. Unlike most of his colleagues, who prefer to remain politically correct, he is said to be more outspoken and courageous. It would have been too much to expect revolutionary statements, but hopes were rather high because – to be honest – it is very seldom that you hear a heated debate about Swedish security concerns. Our only wish was that not everything that was to be said would be a 1st April joke.
Mr Ahlin started with the provocative statement that, “Swedes are the prisoners of their own success. In security terms, Swedish society is still stuck in Cold War thinking.”
Loe edasipostitas: ICDSKommentaar
Author: Julian Tupay
Germany has once again maneuvered itself into a precarious position as obstructer of the spread of peace and prosperity and common sense, a coddler of Russia and an antagonizer of allies. A position unpleasant to have and difficult to defend and hold indeed.
This unfortunate episode began with Chancellor Schröder and his pro-Putin policies and rhetoric, which resulted in the Baltic-Sea-pipeline project and his retirement into Russian payroll; a disaster of yet unforeseeable magnitude for Germany and the EU.
Germany’s eastern neighbors, having suffered under decades of Russian occupation and domination, hold a very different view on how to deal with Russia and, understandably, feel more than a little discomfort when a fellow European state puts its own interests vis-à-vis Russia above a common approach. This has resulted in much disgruntlement.
Loe edasipostitas: ICDSKommentaar
Author: Julian Tupay
25.03.08
Kosovo
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports a Serbian proposal presented to the UN concerning the future of Kosovo. In this proposal Belgrade acknowledges the UN administration of Kosovo, if the UN agrees to only commission ethnic Serbians to work as police officers, customs and justice officials in the 15% of territory inhabited by Serbs. The UN has said it would review the proposal. Analysts believe this is simply another attempt by Belgrade to secure control over the Serbian dominated territories in the north of Kosovo.
Afghanistan
Dozens of fuel supply have been destroyed in a Taliban attack on a NATO convoy in the Khyber-pass, in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The trucks were reportedly waiting for permission to cross the border when two time-detonated bombs went off and destroyed 38 tankers. More importantly, at least 100 people were injured. Also the usually relatively quiet North witnessed violence, when a convoy of Afghan minesweepers was attacked. 5 of them died as a result. In the Province of Kandahar two US soldiers died when their vehicle ran over a landmine in the middle of a busy street. 30 NATO soldiers have died in Afghanistan so far this year, last year the total was 200.
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung writes on the general prospects of the Afghan mission and rests its case on a study conducted by the UK- based Jane’s Information Group. Its country risk-rating allocates to Afghanistan rank three, a much higher one than to Iraq.
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